Obama Has 65 Point Lead among GLBT Likely Voters

Thu. October 30, 2008 12:00 AM

Obama’s 6 Point Lead among All Likely Voters Holds Steady

Rochester, NY - Over 8 out of 10 likely voters (81%) who self-identify as gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender (GLBT) favor Senator Barack Obama for President over Senator John McCain. Only 16% of GLBT likely voters expressed a preference for John McCain. In August, when registered voters were asked the same Presidential preferences, 68% of GLBT voters favored Obama with 10% expressing support for McCain.

Among all likely voters Senator Barack Obama continues to lead Senator John McCain by six percentage points. This lead has not changed since The Harris Poll®, conducted one week earlier.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll, a new nationwide survey of 2,303 U.S. adults, of whom 1,695 are likely voters, surveyed online between October 20 and 27, 2008 by Harris Interactive®. A separate oversample of 231 GLBT likely voters was also conducted.

This new poll shows Obama leading McCain by 50% to 44% of likely voters with 2% supporting Ralph Nader and 1% supporting the Libertarian candidate, Bob Barr.

Other interesting results of this new Harris Poll include:

• Among those who have already voted (12% of likely voters), Obama leads McCain by 9 points – 51% to 42%;

• 15% of those who voted for George W. Bush in 2004 are likely to vote for Obama, compared to 11% of those who voted for John Kerry who are now likely to vote for McCain;

• Among those likely voters who voted in a primary or caucus, half (51%) are likely to vote for Obama while 44% are likely to vote for McCain. McCain edges Obama, 45% to 44% among those likely voters who did not vote in a primary or caucus;

• While most of those who supported Hillary Clinton in the primary election support Obama, 18% are likely voters for McCain;

• Obama voters are more likely (by 51% to 47%) than McCain supporters to say they are "absolutely certain" of how they will vote; and,

• Obama voters are more likely than McCain supporters (by 73% to 65%) to be "extremely interested" in the presidential election.

So What?
As the countdown to the election gets closer, the likelihood of John McCain closing the gap gets smaller by the day. If there is any good news for McCain it is that Obama has not been able to widen his lead, and that very large numbers of likely voters are not "absolutely certain" of their current preferences. But, there is also the interest factor and, if those who are extremely interested do come out and vote, this again tilts the race in Obama's favor.

Get Out The Vote
Remember to vote Tuesday, November 4, 2008. For polling locations in Chicago visit ChicagoElections.com