Wed. November 15, 2000
Santa Clara, CA -
Fifty years ago the thought that a company could be worth $1 trillion (U.S. currency, not Italian Lira) would have been considered ludicrous. Now, the real question is, which company will be first?
The race currently stands at General Electric (NYSE:GE) in first place, with a current market capitalization of $528 billion. Factoring in acquisitions and a still respectable growth rate, a $1 trillion market cap is possible within one year, but not likely.
In second place is Cisco (Nasdaq:CSCO) with a current market capitalization of $386 billion. At its 52-week high, Cisco was worth over $577 billion, but the tech slide has cut off a large chunk of that. No tech company acquires more than Cisco, and its searing growth rate makes it our top pick for the finish line.
Slipping down to third place is Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT). Before the antitrust issue, Microsoft had the best chance of making the $1 trillion mark, sporting a market capitalization of $642 billion at its 52-week high. Some say that should Microsoft be split up, the parts would be worth more than the whole, and a $1 trillion value would be easily reachable, but who knows how long that will take?
Moving up to the four spot is Exxon Mobil. With recent oil prices putting a charge into the stock, Exxon Mobil’s market cap now sits at a peachy $302 billion. Unless oil spikes up to $100 per barrel, Exxon Mobil is unlikely to see a $1 trillion market cap before 2010.
Falling down several spots to five is Intel (Nasdaq:INTC) with a mild $282 billion market capitalization. At its 52-week high of $75 13/16, Intel had a market cap eclipsing the half-trillion mark, but recent semiconductor woes have almost pushed the stock under the radar. But don’t count Intel out. With a big acquisition, some new products, resurgence in the stock, and a little bad luck for the other candidates, Intel has a slim shot at being first.
Deserving of an honorable mention is Walmart which sported a $313 billion market cap at its 52-week high of $70. As the stock has fallen, Walmart’s market cap has fallen to its current $216 billion valuation. Very impressive for this mass merchandising superstore, but unless it buys 100 other discount department stores, warehouse membership clubs, and full-line supermarkets, it doesn’t have a chance of being first.
Whichever company makes it to $1 trillion first, only one question looms…what happens next? Will the climb continue for each of these giants or will new giants emerge? Only time will tell.
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