Chicago, IL -
This year is an unusual one for the Academy Awards. The nominees brought us lots of surprises. The Academy seemed to embrace smaller, independent features and a lot of lesser known movies and performances. How many of us have seen Keisha Castle-Hughes' performance in Whale Rider? (buy it) Or Djimon Hounsou in In America? The real prize for roles like these is just being nominated.
But what makes this year really unusual is every one of the major categories has one clear front runner, and it doesn't seem likely that there will be any upsets. However, the Academy has surprised us in the past, so one never knows.
But here's who I think will win.
Mystic River's Sean Penn will beat out Lost in Translations's (buy it) Bill Murray as Best Actor. Neither actor is especially well-liked in Hollywood, so I think Penn has the edge because he's been nominated three times before and this is Murray's first.
Charlize Theron's (pictured above) role in Monster has Oscar written all over it. Female Serial Killer, Beautiful actress makes herself ugly... not to mention she's won just about every other award so far. Her only competition for Best Actress is Something's Gotta Give's Diane Keaton, but the academy has yet to give an award to an actress for looking great.
There are lots of good performances in the Supporting Actor Category, but no one comes close to Mystic River's Tim Robbins in performance or career.
For Supporting Actress, I'm guessing Renee Zellweger will win for Cold Mountain. This might be the one category, however, that an unknown can upset a favorite. Shohreh Aghdashloo's moving performance in House of Sand and Fog brought movie goers to tears and what a great political move it would be to give the award to an Iranian actress.
Peter Jackson and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King have it wrapped up for Best Director and Best Picture. They waited three years for some recognition and my guess is the Academy won't disappoint.
I think Lost in Translation will edge out In America for Best Original Screenplay.
The one upset I'm predicting will happen is that American Splendor (buy it) will beat Mystic River for Best Adapted Screenplay.
Finding Nemo (buy it) will win Best Animated Feature. Duh.
I'm predicting The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the the King will win the most by scoring 9 Oscars.
I'm also predicting the Oscars will post some of its lowest ratings to date. I don't know many people excited about watching or arguing over who's going to win. People will tune in for Billy Crystal's open and then quickly tune out.
Check back for an update Monday Morning.
Events: Oscar Night Parties
Events: CGMC's 4th Annual Oscar Reception